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By Prof Robert Powell
AUSTRALIAN MINING INDUSTRY: CREDIT AND MARKET TAIL RISK DURING A CRISIS PERIOD
ABSTRACT
Industry risk is an important consideration to equities investors in determining portfolio mix. It is also important to lenders in managing credit portfolio risk. This article focuses on the mining industry in Australia, that country’s largest industry by exports. The study concentrates on extreme credit and market risk, to determine the riskiness of the mining industry relative to the broader market, with a focus on the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period and the use tail risk metrics. These include Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for measuring market risk and Conditional Distance to Default (CDD) for measuring credit risk. Based on these metrics, the study finds market risk for mining shares to be higher than the broader market, but that the gap narrows during the crisis. From a credit perspective, despite higher volatility experienced by the mining industry, the default risk is lower than the broader market, due to the greater distance between mining entities’ asset and debt values
Keywords: Value at Risk; Conditional Value at Risk; Conditional Distance to Default; Mining; Australia
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